been two months since the second National Conference of Family . The event, designed as a forum for the discussion of measures to support the family, has attracted media attention mainly because the defection forced the Prime Minister following the Rubygate , which has relegated to the second floor work schedule. Yet the issues addressed in the conference are of fundamental importance for the economic and social development of the country, especially in times of declining fertility and aging of the population constant. Overall, it appears necessary to help families through measures to support income (see also about article Paladini on this site), to facilitate the reconciliation of work and family life Finally for promozione del ruolo della famiglia nel sistema educativo e nella formazione di reti di mutua assistenza. Si tratta di interventi necessari e auspicabili in un paese decisamente carente nelle politiche di sostegno alla maternità e alle famiglie: l’Italia spende solo il 4,7% del Pil nelle politiche di sostegno alla famiglia (rispetto ad una media dell’UE27 dell’8,26%), collocandosi in penultima posizione nella classifica dei paesi europei.
A oggi il dibattito è incentrato sul sostegno economico alle coppie con figli (minori), con l’intento di aiutare ex post , a procreazione avvenuta, i neogenitori. Ma ciò è insufficiente. Piuttosto, you need a broader perspective and to consider, alongside the policies ex post, even ex ante interventions couples who put in a position to have the number of children they want. The decision to become parents requires a certain stability and certainty, including economic. The dualism that has been created in the Italian labor market, with an increasing proportion of young people with low income levels, inadequate protection and discontinuous careers, and mature workers with higher wages, greater job security and greater career opportunities, had a severe impact future generations. In particular, young women face choosing to become mothers in a context of precarious employment and lack of safeguards.
In our recent work we used data from the Survey on Household Income of the Bank of Italy (questionnaire 2006) to deepen the relationship between job insecurity for women and children going to do in Italy (Modena and Sabatini 2010). According to economic theory most widely accepted, the decline in fertility was a consequence of increased female participation in the labor market. The highest levels of education and the best prospects of the female workforce would pay it caused an increase in the opportunity cost 1 della rinuncia al lavoro, rendendo sempre più frequente il rinvio della maternità. Tuttavia, il rapporto tra partecipazione femminile e fecondità è cambiato significativamente in molti paesi negli ultimi due decenni ( Adsera 2004 ). Nell’Unione Europea, il segno della correlazione è divenuto positivo, al punto che i paesi con i più alti tassi di fecondità sono oggi quelli scandinavi, gli stessi che registrano la maggiore partecipazione femminile ( Ahn e Mira 2002 ). Questo cambiamento purtroppo non interessa il nostro paese, che si contraddistingue ancora oggi per tassi di fecondità e di partecipazione female among the lowest ever in Europe.
What is happening in Italy? According to our estimates, the intention of having children is significantly adversely affected by the precariousness of women (which often involves frequent intervals of unemployment). Couples where the woman is insecure have 3% less likely to plan to become pregnant than those in which the woman is employed for an indefinite period (with the same other characteristics such as age, number of children, level of education, etc.).. The uncertainty is a deterrent, especially for younger women and couples in modest economic circumstances. The interpretation This result seems immediate: the precariousness of women is associated with a high uncertainty on future income and well-founded fear that the choice of becoming a mother would undermine any possibility of realization in the world of work. The working poor generally do not enjoy any form of maternity leave, much less parental allowance. Moreover, the duration of the condition of insecurity is positively correlated with a decrease in the probability of finding a stable job ( Barbieri and Scherer 2010) and an increased risk of poverty ( Bank of Italy 2009). Daily experience shows that, for a fragile young woman, pregnancy can lead to termination of employment, making it even harder to return to work after childbirth. The atypical workers are therefore often forced to choose between motherhood and participation in the labor market. In this context, the loss of the job can have dramatic consequences for two fundamental reasons: 1) highlights the financial difficulties of the family, moreover, exacerbated by the birth of a child, 2) create for women the risk of falling into a trap of insecurity, characterized by a sequence of small fixed-term contracts with no prospects and little chance of having their professional satisfaction. The precariousness rather male does not seem to have a significant effect on the decision to have children, reflecting the fact that usually the man is not forced to face a trade-off between career and parenthood.
support measures suggested so far by the fertility debate (see note the proposals of the National Conference of the Family) are sometimes, rightly, to help couples with children. But forget, guiltily, women who have been forced to postpone or give up. We believe that to support the family interventions are not sufficient, though necessary, ex post: it is essential to combat the root causes of the decline of fecondità, adottando serie politiche del lavoro che riducano la precarietà, soprattutto quella femminile.
Riferimenti bibliografici
Adsera, A. (2004) . Changing fertility rates in developed countries. The impact of labor market institutions. Journal of Population Economics, 17, 17-43.
Ahn N., Mira P. (2002). A note on the relationship between fertility and female employment rates in developed countries. Journal of Population Economics, 15, 667-682.
Barbieri, P., Scherer, S. (2009). Labour Market Flexibilization and its Consequences in Italy. European Sociological Review, 25 (6), 677-692
Banca d'Italia (2009). annuale Relazione sul 2008 . Roma: Banca d'Italia.
Modena, F., Sabatini, F. (2010). I Would if I Could: Precarious Employment and Childbearing Intentions in Italy . Review of Economics of the Household , forthcoming.
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